On a global scale, about 70,000 tons of sustainable synthetic kerosene are available today, which was the result of an ICAO inventory a few months ago, and for the year 2030 the forecasts predict a global availability of about 7 million tons of sustainable kerosene from today’s perspective. If these quantities are compared to the global kerosene market of almost 300 million tons, the major challenge will clearly be facing aviation, the petroleum industry, research and therefore politics when it comes to climate and environmental protection in aviation. According to experts, the substitution of fossil kerosene by biogenic and electricity-based sustainable alternatives is probably the most significant strategy, especially since further possibilities to reduce climate gases have already been developed to a considerable extent in the past and future technically feasible efficiency potentials are slowly reaching their limits.
The forecast growth in air traffic, will cause a further increase in the demand for kerosene. Without an effective increase in the production volumes and usage shares of sustainable aviation fuels, e.g. due to economies of scale or the still outstanding passage through technological learning curves, it will not be possible to achieve remarkable cost reductions; therefore, a growing market for these fuels cannot be developed (chicken-and-egg problem). Although airlines can use synthetic kerosene to reduce their commitments under EU ETS/CORSIA, both tools are currently unsuitable as steering instruments for the market introduction of sustainable aviation fuels. Additional steering measures are needed to achieve a significant share of the use of sustainable aviation fuels in the future. For this purpose, state prescribed quotas are particularly suitable, which already represent proven mechanisms of action for climate protection in ground-based traffic and have been introduced for many years.
Kay Kratky, aireg President Industry and Aviation, commented: “I am convinced that only a consistent European regulation of quotas for the use of sustainable synthetic aviation fuels will create the necessary incentive: it will provide producers with the required investment security and pave the way for airlines to achieve their ambitious climate goals by 2050. To ensure that this is handled quickly in the European Union, Germany should follow the example of the Scandinavian countries and adopt the considerations currently being made in France and Spain. For domestic air traffic, a quota of 20% in 2030 would mean a manageable quantity of between 130,000 and approx. 250,000 tonnes (depending on the technology route) of sustainable synthetic kerosene. A clear and manageable crediting and offsetting of GHG savings is a basic requirement for a successful industrial market penetration”.
In this context aireg has developed a production and commercialisation roadmap for sustainable synthetic kerosene in several workshops, which will be published after a discussion and agreement in the aireg members’ meeting on November 11th 2019.